Chapter 38: Kawaki Aoba: Everyone, Listen to My Analysis (Beguilement)

"As far as I know, there are three most prominent ninjas of the new generation in the Village Hidden in the Sand.

The first is Rasa, a disciple of the Third Kazekage who also possesses the Magnet Release. The second is the young genius who emerged at the end of the Second Shinobi World War, Pakura of the Scorch Release. As for the third, that would be Sasori of the Red Sand, whom we just encountered, but since he has already defected, he need not be considered.

Of the remaining two, Rasa is the Third Kazekage’s disciple and is considered the most orthodox successor to the position of Fourth Kazekage; he is undoubtedly determined to seize the title. As for Pakura, she rose to fame at a young age and is proud and ambitious. In terms of strength, she is one of the best in the Sand, and she surely has no shortage of loyal followers. Under these circumstances, I don't believe she has no designs on the Kazekage position. Moreover, even if she lacked the ambition, she would have no choice; as long as those around her are driven to gain more influence within the village, they will inevitably push her toward the seat of the Kazekage."

These words were merely a retrospective deduction Kawaki Aoba made after knowing the outcome—in short, he was making it all up.

Yet, it was this fabrication that successfully made Yuhi Shinku lose his composure. He suddenly realized that the analysis provided by his most outstanding student did not seem so absurd. He had never noticed before that, beyond his talent for ninjutsu, his student was so brilliant, having quietly kept track of the situations in other villages. Although these were all public facts, for a newly graduated genin, gathering such information still required considerable effort.

Seeing that Teacher Shinku was showing signs of being swayed, Kawaki Aoba quickly fueled the fire: "As long as Rasa and Pakura are both in the Sand, they must decide who is superior to claim the position of the Fourth Kazekage. The question is, how will they settle this? What kind of confrontation would qualify to determine who is the most suitable candidate for the Fourth Kazekage? There is only one answer: Konoha. Whoever can achieve victory in a war against us and secure sufficient benefits will hold the greater advantage in the election."

This time, Yuhi Shinku fell silent. Although Kawaki Aoba’s analysis was still somewhat far-fetched, one could not rule out such a possibility; heaven knows what the people in the Sand are thinking. After all, they have already begun shifting portions of their ninja forces toward the border.

Teacher Shinku is already being persuaded; max-level Observation Haki is truly legendary. A smile appeared on Kawaki Aoba’s face as he added the final bargaining chip.

"Besides that, I believe there is another reason why the Sand will launch a war against us: they need to pin the death of the Third Kazekage on us."

"What?" Asuma, who had been listening to the analysis, immediately flared up. "Impossible! Wasn't the Third Kazekage’s death caused by their own people? That Sasori of the Red Sand—we even saw the human puppet!"

"Exactly, Asuma, you are right. That is the truth, but it’s impossible to tell the Sand ninja that. They won't believe it, and more importantly, they *cannot* believe it. Want to know why?" Kawaki Aoba once again preempted Asuma’s thoughts, leaving the boy choked for words.

"Because they need this war. Rasa and Pakura need a war to prove themselves, and their supporters also need to accumulate merit on the battlefield to climb higher. Then there are the high-ranking officials responsible for keeping the village running after the Kazekage's death; as long as there is hope, they won't pass up an opportunity to tear a large piece of flesh from Konoha.

Finally, such a war is acceptable to them regardless of whether they win or lose. If they defeat us, it’s a feat they can boast about for a lifetime, bringing fame to the Sand, earning more trust, securing more mission contracts, and causing the Daimyo of the Land of Wind to value them more and increase their funding. With so many benefits in sight, how could they possibly admit the Third Kazekage’s death had nothing to do with Konoha? How could they not declare war?

There is no way around it; the Sand triggering this war is an inevitable outcome. Even if we had captured Sasori alive last night and brought the human puppet back to the village to provide a reasonable explanation, they would never accept it. You must realize that Sasori is the grandson of the elder Chiyo and the First Kazekage. If such a scandal were confirmed, the blow to the morale of the Sand would be immeasurable. Therefore, from the perspective of the Sand, they *must* find a scapegoat, and Konoha is undoubtedly the most suitable one."

Sarutobi Asuma went silent. He found that he couldn't find a single flaw in Kawaki Aoba’s logic. Most absurdly, when he put himself in the shoes of the Sand, he actually felt the urge to go to war with Konoha—if they won, the benefits were truly unimaginable. Wait, if they won? What if they didn't? At this moment, Asuma felt he had discovered the crucial point.

"But what if they lose? Can the Sand really be certain they can defeat Konoha?" Asuma spoke quickly, fearing that if he were too slow, Kawaki Aoba would once again read his mind. After speaking, he stared intently at his friend, hoping he would make a mistake just once—wouldn't that prevent the war from happening?

Little did he know, he had already been led astray by Kawaki Aoba. It was just the analysis of a genin; how could it possibly change a future dictated by the momentum of the times?

However, Kawaki Aoba was destined to disappoint Asuma. He turned to face Asuma with a look of confusion, stating as if it were obvious: "Isn't that normal? We are Konoha! Isn't it normal for them to lose to us?

In terms of secret arts, we have the Inuzuka, Aburame, and Akimichi clans. In terms of Kekkei Genkai, we have the Uchiha and Hyuga, noble families with ocular powers that have stood for a millennium. Even among the clans without secret arts or bloodlines, there are powerful ones like your Sarutobi and the Shimura clans. Even if we compare the number of civilian ninjas, in a place with such harsh conditions as the Sand, how many people with ninja talent are actually worth training?

Finally, regarding the number of strong individuals who decide the outcome of a war—let’s talk about the Sand first. What do they have? The new generation of Rasa and Pakura, and the older generation of Chiyo and Ebizo. That’s only four people I can think of. But what about Konoha? Apart from the Hyuga, which of the clan heads I just mentioned is inferior? Even if we sent two of ours against one of theirs, we would still have strong fighters left to watch from the sidelines. Facing such strength, it is only natural for them to lose."